EI
ENBRIDGE INC (ENB)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record Q2 adjusted EBITDA of C$4.644B (+7% YoY), adjusted EPS of C$0.65, GAAP EPS C$1.00; management reaffirmed FY25 guidance and said results should finish near the upper end of the range .
- Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global), ENB delivered a strong beat on revenue ($10.91B vs $7.78B) and EPS ($0.48 vs $0.42), while EBITDA was below consensus ($2.99B vs $3.31B), reflecting definitional differences (adjusted vs reported) and hedge settlements [GetEstimates]* .
- Segment mix: Gas Transmission (+C$302MM YoY) and Gas Distribution (+C$273MM YoY) drove growth; Liquids Pipelines (-C$120MM YoY) and Renewables (-C$27MM YoY) were headwinds .
- Growth catalysts: Clear Fork Solar (US$0.9B) contracted with Meta, Line 31 expansion (US$0.1B), North Aitken Creek storage ($0.3B), Traverse upsized to 2.5 Bcf/d; Mainline Optimization Phase 1 FID targeted later this year .
- Balance sheet and capital returns: Debt/EBITDA 4.7x, quarterly common dividend C$0.9425 declared; management emphasized $9–$10B annual investment capacity and continued dividend growth .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong utility and gas transmission performance: Adjusted EBITDA in Gas Transmission rose C$302MM YoY on revised U.S. rates, acquisitions, and higher BC volumes/storage utilization . “Our strong first half of 2025 gives us confidence that we'll finish the year in the upper end of our EBITDA guidance range” — CEO Greg Ebel .
- Strategic growth sanctioned: Clear Fork Solar (600 MW, US$0.9B) fully backed by Meta; Line 31 expansion; Aitken Creek 40 Bcf storage expansion; Traverse upsized to 2.5 Bcf/d to meet demand .
- Reaffirmed guidance and stable frameworks: FY25 adjusted EBITDA C$19.4–C$20.0B, DCF/share C$5.50–C$5.90; ~98% EBITDA under regulated/long-term contracts; negligible tariff exposure cited .
What Went Wrong
- Liquids Pipelines softness: Adjusted EBITDA fell C$120MM YoY on lower volumes at Flanagan South/Spearhead and Bakken .
- Hedge settlements impacted corporate segment: Eliminations & Other adjusted EBITDA down C$119MM YoY due to higher realized FX hedge losses .
- Ohio utility impairment and rate case complexity: Regulatory asset impairment in Enbridge Gas Ohio and rehearing filed; CFO/management acknowledged legal issues and plan for updated filings .
Financial Results
Headline Metrics (USD, S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment Adjusted EBITDA (CAD, Q2)
KPIs and Cash Flow (CAD)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Enbridge reported record Q2 EBITDA and we expect to finish the year in the upper end of that guidance range… well on track to meet the mid-point of our per share metrics in 2025” — Greg Ebel, CEO .
- “We sanctioned the US$0.9 billion Clear Fork Solar project… fully backed by a long-term offtake agreement with Meta. We don’t currently expect the changes to renewable tax credits… to impact Clear Fork or any of our other late-stage development projects.” .
- “Alongside our partners, we upsized the Traverse Pipeline from 1.75 bcf/d to 2.5 bcf/d… provides bidirectional service between Agua Dulce and Katy” .
- “We’re laser focused on disciplined capital allocation… leverage has improved and now sits at 4.7x… $9 to $10 billion of annual investment capacity… execute on our $32 billion backlog” .
Q&A Highlights
- Power demand and data centers: 35+ GTM opportunities totaling ~11 Bcf/day; 10+ specific data center opportunities; Texas Eastern near Homer City with ~10 Bcf/day underutilized receipts enabling economical expansions .
- Mainline expansion gating: Flanagan South open season oversubscribed; path to include rate base treatment under CTS/MTS with precedent; FID later this year .
- Ohio rate case and impairment: Strong framework (ROE ~9.8%, equity thickness 51.9%); impairment primarily pension asset treatment; rehearing filed; management confident in utility growth .
- Permian and Gulf Coast strategy: JV with WhiteWater progressing; Traverse upsized; optionality between Agua Dulce/Katy; storage expansions under review .
- Contracting frameworks for data center-related builds: Preference for utility or investment-grade counterparties under long-term take-or-pay; smaller hyperscalers require LC’s/aid-to-construct .
Estimates Context
Consensus detail: EPS (12 est), Revenue (3 est). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Context: Management reported adjusted EBITDA of C$4.644B (+7% YoY) and adjusted EPS C$0.65; differences vs S&P reported EBITDA reflect non‑GAAP adjustments and FX hedges captured in Eliminations & Other .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Estimate beats on revenue and EPS, with EBITDA under S&P consensus; Street may revise models to incorporate stronger utility/gas transmission contributions and FX-hedge impacts (positive for per-share metrics) [GetEstimates]* .
- Near-term catalysts: Mainline Optimization Phase 1 FID; further data center-related gas expansions and storage contracts; continued project sanctions across segments .
- Liquids headwinds localized (FSP/Spearhead/Bakken volumes) but Mainline volumes remained robust at 3.0 mmbpd; optimization investments should support utilization and ROE within collar .
- Balance sheet healthy at 4.7x Debt/EBITDA, supporting $9–$10B annual investable capacity and sustained dividend growth; common dividend C$0.9425 declared .
- Regulatory outlook constructive overall: Ohio outcome mixed but ROE/equity thickness supportive; Utah/NC rate cases progressing; Ontario rebasing framework in place .
- Strategic positioning to serve rising North American power demand via “all-of-the-above” approach (gas transmission, storage, renewables); marquee customers (Meta, Amazon, AT&T) increase visibility .
- Medium-term thesis: diversified, low-risk cash flows (~98% protected) and $32B secured backlog underpin ~5% annual growth post-2026; watch for LNG/storage leverage and Permian egress optionality .
Notes on Non-GAAP: ENB’s adjusted metrics exclude unrealized derivative fair value changes, impairments, realized hedge losses, and other items (see reconciliation tables); Eliminations & Other captures FX hedge settlements that can swing reported versus adjusted EBITDA .
Values retrieved from S&P Global where indicated.*